Adam
9 October 2024
The market didn't miss the read on the race at all, with the first three past the post heading betting. VIA SISTINA was solid in betting throughout with I expect most willing to put a line through the last start flop - albeit not in ink.
I was one in that camp, and although not adamant, it was much too hard to ignore her win in the Winx Stakes, upsetting star and subsequent winner, Fangirl. She did look beaten by the stablemate, form gelding, BUCKAROO, however really dug in that last little bit, exposing her edge at this trip. She goes onto the Cox Plate, currently sitting 4th in betting. The big query for me will be tempo, I'll personally be looking at runners with an exposed edge, or at least pointing to a strong 2000m.
The wavering of BUCKAROO has only validated my thoughts that this trip sees him emptied out. He had come through two genuine enough run races, particularly the Underwood, that may have slightly exaggerated the visual. Admittedly, I did think I had it all wrong when he quickened in the straight, however the 4/2 differential has me sticking strong on the logic. I believe they go to the Caulfield Cup and does appear well treated at the weights. However, I'm going to hold strong and will be against.
ELIYASS flattened off post his peak in the Kingston Town, which I think you could expect. Despite the distance rating not indicating as much from the Turnbull, I do think he profile best of the trifecta to step up in trip. It would pay to reference the yard with him, as in each of his starts, he has paraded with negatives that could bring him undone against quality.
