Adam
16 October 2024
There was plenty of talk regarding the condition of Caulfield, particularly commentary around an "on-pace bias", according to some, it was savage.
The data, coupled with postion in run and visual review would suggest this is completely not the case. Conversation may have been sparked with DENY KNOWLEGE winning from the front post setting a very fast tempo (10.7L above an all averages BM), as well as the comments of McDonald post BROADSIDING's shock defeat.
I believe you can logically conclude, or at least elude to, that rails in run was of some advantage. However for the most part, tempo dictated results, and any chat outside of that is seemingly pocket talk.
MIGHT AND POWER
Zahra used Pride Of Jenni tactics to bust up a field, and the result was much the same for DENY KNOWLEDGE as if she were engaged. She was extending through the early section, able to hold through the middle, whilst only MR BRIGHTSIDE and ATISHU made their moves from approx the 600m point.
It was a considerable new peak for DENY KNOWLEDGE (105.4), trouncing a previous best of 101.8 in the Oaks at Geelong, early 2023, run in much the same manner, race shape wise.
MR BRIGHTSIDE (104.2) continued his stellar form from a ratings perspective, but I think with strong confidence, we can coclude he is not as genuine to the 2000m.
ATISHU was the one primed to capitalise, and whilst not as reserved at the 2000m for her, I do think she would be well placed back to the mile akin to the Queen Of The Turf placement last prep.
CAULFIELD GUNIEAS
The race was forecast at 103.2, with the winner, PRIVATE LIFE returning a lowly 99.6. This may have also contributed to the on pace bias theory, profiling from an SP perspective. However, if you take BROADSIDING and MAYFAIR out of the mix, the field was even for the majority, and those two have run down markedly. If anything, the rails in run theory is probably buoyed by the FEROCE performance - to be fair, he was bringing in a 100.6, so he certainly wasnt legless to the field.
EVAPORATE backed up his form coming in and was the runner to take from the race. He had been trending up on The Valley circuit and was no doubt at his top for this.
I am more than happy to forgive BROADSIDING off that run, not with any real conviction, but may be fair to say he would run down off the FUP run at 1400m given the way it was run. Reserved on the thought that he needs the sting out just yet.
TOORAK
Smart, brave or ludicrous, among other adjectives, were on the cards for the ride of Shinn, and on the result, I have him both smart and brave.
There must have been some confidence in the horse, by either Shinn or forecasted to him by the stable, as to make a whipping mover through the 8-600m section, there would have been rightful cause for concern ANTINO couldn't hold that to the line. He did, but make no mistake, it was that 9L+ acceleration through the mid section that won him the race. Any less or any more, likely sees the move come undone.
The race rated extremely well, with another runner recording a substanial new peak: 109.2, up from 105.8 in the Wayne Wilson mid last year. For reference, that is in the Top 5 RI performances in the past 24 months, and I for one did not have that close to forecasted.
All ratings and figures are derived from in house Racing Intel ©️ database, built on premiere racing software "Rapro", using verified times supplied by Daily Sectionals