Adam
9 October 2024
Epsom day kicked off with a somewhat lacklustre Flight Stakes, largely due to the late scratching of Autumn Glow. Whilst futures punters were in despair, there was more concern about the upcoming stars welfare. The Waller stable put out comms to advise she was found to be lame, and subsequently an x-ray revealed a minor bone chip in the front right knee. With all going well, we will see her return in her season namesake, Autumn.
The stablemate, LADY SHENANDOAH capitalised on the misfortune, tagging an even speed, putting a margin on the field. She ran a 99.6, up from her lead in run of 95.2. The race quality was 98.6 with the favourite coming out, and LADY SHENANDOAH was the only one that validated the quality. SNOW IN MAY has run down from her Tea Rose figure, and whilst expected to an extent, I did not anticpate such a drop off, particularly not able to buoy out of that mid section in the same manner as that prior run.
Onto the Premier Stakes, where the blowout of AIRMAN left most reserved on key Everest hopes. BELLA NIPOTINA was backed into favouritism, and I was well on side with that market sentiment. I believe the only difference between BELLA NIPOTINA and the winner, was the slight delay in behind runners, while both AIRMAN and MAZU were building into their runs. BELLA, in her usual fashion, ripped home, with her final section figure 7+ above an all averages benchmark. That is about as good as any runner goes, over the concluding stages.
I am hesitant to write of GIGA KICK, with enough excuse given the tempo. A high pressure Everest will suit him, and the building prep off a lengthy spell just might not be a bad thing. I won't be with come race day, as I think there is more in the performance figures of others to work with.
Plenty of talk about THINK ABOUT IT, and the ride that was seemingly his undoing. Collett was under strict instruction to ride conservatively, and hats off to the Pride stable for coming out and backing him up. On face value, it was awful. I am of strong opinion had they pressed, he is certainly in the finish. A huge shame not to see last years winner have his chance to defend the crown.
There was plenty in the win of LAND LEGEND in the Metrop, and on reflection, it did become quite evident he was a logical play. I forecast quite a weak edition, admittedly not adding much weight to Grand Finals and peaks, more so putting more into lead in figures. The Kingston Town was the strongest race to reference, and that was subsequently solidified through the Epsom and Turnbull. LAND LEGEND maintained above benchmark throughout the race, and a lot of merit zipping around them given the solid tempo. He has recorded a big peak of 107.
ZARDOZI was the Grand Final runner, bringing much the same set up to her Autumn campaign, placing behind Autumn Angel in the Australian Oaks. There was merit enough to the run, travelling faster than the eventual winner through the early section, minor interference by that runner entering the straight, and the slight weight disadvantage. All that being said, hard to split the performance of both, however the result was right, and the race rated well.
CEOLWULF top rated the meeting, taking out the Epsom with a 107.2. He had the position in run advantage to other key hopes, and backed up the lead in figure from the Kingston Town. The detrrent for me was the jockey change, coupled with the drop back from 2000m to the mile. In hindsight, that may have been key with distance and set up vulnerabilities in the field. MY OBERON is back extremely well, having run half a length to Fangirl before a torrid run in the race, yet boxing on with good merit. A King Charles target, or even Champs Stakes has me interested going forward. Not interested if goes to the Cox Plate.
