The Everest

 

The richest turf race in the world, The Everest is unequivocally the biggest highlight of the Spring Carnival. Once thwarted a pop-up race, The Everest hosts the world’s best sprinters, not only competing for the prize money, but for the first time in the event’s history, Group 1 status.

 

Worth a staggering $20 million in this year’s edition, the marquee race will have more attention than ever, and without a doubt, the sub 70 second sprint will not disappoint.

 

As you would expect, each runner has earned their spot, and on figures alone, it is hard to put a gap between a majority of them. With that being said, the preparations leading in are key.

 

Let’s dive into the form and see where each runner sits:

 

1. I WISH I WIN - Has had his knockers, and I can understand why, putting in two consecutive sub 100 ratings (first time since his Au debut prep). However, that is a pretty one-dimensional take on the star sprinter, and if ratings were everything, we'd have the form done in five minutes.

 

The Moonee Valley track is an excuse enough on its own, and I think you would be hard pressed to say he is not back pretty close to prior preps. I can back this up with his first-up performance figure exceeding his Black Caviar, Memsie, and TJ resuming runs. There was plenty enough in his run in the Manikato, despite the actual rating, given he has come deep and finished off. 

 

2. GIGA KICK – Somewhat wary that the 22’ winner turns his figure markedly now third-up off a long layoff. His two runs have been pass marks, and I believe those two were soft enough to blow the cobwebs out and see him peak here. Keeping in mind, he was 1000m to 1200m second-up, and the figure (100) is what he put down in the Danehill before going on to win this race.

 

 

3. PRIVATE EYE – He is certainly not without claims, particularly in a high pressure 1200m, where he is not the most dynamic, but he will be strong late. Not a lot of favours this time in work and I don’t want to write him off, placing in last years edition, and doing so suffering adversity in run. He is one run more forward this prep, and the days between runs still seeing him have enough freshness in the legs.

 

4. BELLA NIPOTINA – I have plenty of time for this mare, but of the opinion she will put on the flashing light yet again. She deserves to be in this field and if anything, bomb proof in reference to her performances. The Premiere was a weak lead in figure, largely due to the slow tempo. BELLA arguably wins with even luck there. Needs her peak 106 to win, coming off a 101.4.

 

5. I AM ME – Strong win in The Shorts leading in, recording a new peak of 106.8, which would see her right in the finish here. However, the 1200m has to be a strong sticking point. Rawiller will get the most out of her, but I do expect her to wane over the concluding stages.

 

6. STEFI MAGNETICA – She has put in one of the bigger performance figures I have on record, a 113 when resuming (106.2 overall rating). She has more to come, showing she hadn’t tailed off at all from her career making prep last time in, winning the Stradbroke. Sets up well, and if improves off that, she is no doubt in the finish.

 

7. SUNSHINE IN PARIS – Referencing lead in preps, gaining her slot early has given the stable a perfect timing into the race with other runners likely ticked up to prove their worth to gain a slot. She has come back in very strong order, top rating (106) the meet winning the Sheraco, and a nice tightener at the trials. From a set up perspective, she likely has the better run to key chances back with her.

 

8. JOLIESTAR – Hardest runner to put a number to in my opinion. The way she returned (105.8) in the Show County was breath taking, before running third to Sunshine In Paris in the Sheraco. She was left flat footed there, when the leader really kicked it up through the middle stages. Back to Randwick, McDonald back on and an immeasurable ceiling, I think she could be coiled up to do something special.

 

9. GROWING EMPIRE – Star colt on the rise, and whilst I don’t want to knock him, I have others with stronger profiles. He had the field cold in the Manikato (103.6), but did have a little slow down through the middle to kick like that. Caught paddling late, and I probably just need to see a little more with him. Too short.

 

10. TRAFFIC WARDEN – Held his figure second-up in the Golden Rose (104), backing up the strong Run To The Rose win resuming. I quite like the drop back to 1200m and should find a good, possibly a pair back in running. In the mix but I do think priced a little tight.

 

11. STORM BOY – Stand reserved on Storm Boy, having been a hype horse post the Magic Millions win in January. I had him profiled getting 14 to the mile, however off last start at 1400m, coupled with the San Domenico run, I can see the logic in the drop back in trip. Plenty of excuses have been made, and whilst he is a good horse, he is going to have to turn things considerably to match the top tier. Coming in off a 102.8 into this, trending upward to peak.

 

12. LADY OF CAMELOT – Agree with the market, the Slipper winner hasn’t shown enough this time in, although trending forward, it will take something special to see her improve to a level I have needing to win this.

 

Summary: JOLIESTAR is the runner I can make the most rounded case for, despite stating she is the hardest to put a number to. She was just too dynamic and soft late to ignore when resuming in the Show County, and I think logically we can work to that figure pretty closely.

 

I WISH I WIN gets the blinkers back on, nose roll off, akin to the Kingsford Smith win. Draws out and is going to be awfully scary late. I think you have to have him on side.

 

TRAFFIC WARDEN, STEFI MAGNETICA, and SUNSHINE IN PARIS are the runners worth including in exotics. PRIVATE EYE for wider players.