Adam
29 October 2024
An elite, freakish performance by VIA SISTINA is simply putting it lightly. With ease, you could have forecast a genuine, and even a peak figure, as it was the perfect storm to do so, with PRIDE OF JENNI guaranteed to set a breakneck tempo on a firm deck - but I don't think any honest data freak would have her doing what she did.
Raw times vs. an "All Averages" BM, they have run 31.3L overall above standard. Even with the track adjustment (6.2L), they have obliterated the previous track record, and it wasn't just the overall time, it was the dynamics inside the race that made VIA SISTINA's performance world-class.
Again, vs. an All Averages benchmark (using all available records at track, distance, and conditions), the figures were somewhat ridiculous. The leader to the 800m (PRIDE OF JENNI) went 21.8L above standard and was decelerating significatntly from there in. That was the race shape + - - for all runners, and that is where the performance of VIA SISTINA comes into it's own. She has maintained 3+ above benchmark through all three sections.
What magnified the performance, was the maintenance of speed through the middle (8-4) to and through the late (4-F) sections, tagging that hot tempo - with McDonald high in the irons, celebrating the performance and his 100th G1 from the 50m mark.
For some perspective, using an "Elite" benchmark. PRIDE OF JENNI has gone out: EARLY: 15.3, MID: -2.9, LATE: -14.4. VIA SISTINA has gone: EARLY: +9.6, +4, +0.3.
This is where normalising the figure is important, without discounting the facts and figures. Against an "All Averages", the performance was supernatural. Bringing it back to a tighter benchmark helps smooth the performance, but the figure still stood out as an anomaly, and a large one at that.
The RI scale is extremely harsh past 110, howver VIA SISTINA, with no intervention (RAW) and base logic alone, scored a 116.4. I was adamant I would be adjusting that down with more information, but on review, there was no logical way to do so.
There was nothing extra ordinary in the other races to soften the times (we had two other 2040m to tighten reference), and as mentioned above, the track adjustment says the track played fast (approx Good 3), which is factored into the overall rating.
After going through different benchmarking profiles (purely in attempt to dull the performance), there was not a way to do it without taking out the actual/factual information at hand.
Graded against against the strict and elite BM profile, VIA SISTINA still broke the RI scale (which was set never to be hit), recording a 115.2. The scale tops out at 115 for reference.
Through normal processes and automatic adjustments (when opening up the race), VIA SISTINA recorded a 120.7. So somewhere in the middle of 115.2 and 120.7 would seem reasonable, which is what the RAW BM rating would have done initially, however weighted to the downside in attempt to normalise given the extraordinary numbers coming in: (INITIAL RAW: 116.4).
Manual intervention now comes into play, and if I took the middle of 115.2 and 120.7, I have: 117.7 rounded down. That seems fair enough, however when we take in margins, the last 50m, and basically what is put in front of us figure wise, I could only mark her up, weighting more to the actual performance in isolation.
VIA SISTINA RATING: 119.7
This is not to say she is the best horse in the world (or ever), but simply she has put in one of the best performances you will ever hope to see on a race track. She will almost undoubtedly regress from this figure, but even hitting the middle of this peak and her previous peak, she will be incredibly hard to go against going forward.
Take nothing away from the performance, but any reference to the champions/elite is a little premature. She had shown she is genuine G1 quality in figures prior, but to put her in the same conversation as the elites, she needs to string figures 110+ together, that is key to be labelled an "Elite". This figure will be treated as an anomaly in itself, measuring to her page, but in isolation, it is nothing short of top world class .
